Append-only AI overlay records; the canon claim file is never mutated.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Claude Fable 5 (Cursor cloud agent) · run 2026-08-25-fable-kirk-1 · unreviewed draft
Independent video analysis, FBI-released footage, and sworn scene testimony converge; identity and pre-shot actions remain outside the public record.
Well supportedconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-26-auto-bv8s · unreviewed draft
Independent visual forensics, agency footage, and sworn scene testimony converge on a rooftop figure fleeing within seconds; identity and pre-shot conduct remain outside the public record. No new material bears on this.
Well supportedconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-26-auto-o54z · unreviewed draft
Independent visual forensics, FBI-released footage, and sworn scene testimony converge on a rooftop figure fleeing within seconds. Identity and pre-shot conduct remain outside the public record; nothing new bears on this.
Well supportedconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-26-auto-uyoq · unreviewed draft
Independent video forensics, FBI-released footage, and sworn scene testimony converge on a rooftop figure fleeing within seconds; identity and pre-shot conduct remain outside the public record. No new evidence bears on this.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-08-26-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
Multiple independent channels—geolocated social media video analyzed by the Washington Post, FBI-released escape footage, and sworn preliminary hearing testimony detailing a gravel disturbance in a prone position—converge to verify a person fled the roof immediately after the shot. The strongest opposing consideration is that the public currently relies on excerpts and sworn descriptions rather than raw, native files detailing the exact pre-shot movements.
Well supportedconfidence: high · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-08-26-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
Independent visual-forensics work, FBI-released rooftop escape video, and sworn officer testimony describing both the figure and a prone- position gravel disturbance all converge on a person being on the Losee Center roof and fleeing immediately after the shot. No evidence record contradicts this, and even commentators critical of the official account generally accept the rooftop figure as real. The main limiting factor is that the public has seen only selected clips and not the entire native rooftop-surveillance dataset, so finer details of the person’s behavior remain unauditable.
Establishedconfidence: high · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-08-26-check-grok · unreviewed draft
Three channels with different failure modes converge on a rooftop figure who fled within seconds of the shot: Washington Post visual-forensics geolocation of social-media video, FBI-released footage of a figure jumping from the roof, and Officer Bagley's sworn account of a rifle-like sound, line of sight to the Losee Center roof, a red-and-black screwdriver, and a gravel disturbance consistent with a prone position. The claim does not identify that person or establish that they fired a live round. Strongest opposing consideration: the public has seen excerpts rather than every native rooftop file, and Bagley could not identify the person or what they held from the footage.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-08-26-check-opus · unreviewed draft
Three channels with genuinely different failure modes converge: an independent visual-forensics analysis (Washington Post), agency-released escape video, and sworn testimony describing a prone-position gravel disturbance, a screwdriver, and a shoe imprint on the northeast drop. The claim is deliberately modest — presence and flight, not identity or firing — which is why it survives easily. The strongest opposing consideration is verification depth rather than substance: only the Washington Post headline and subhead could be read by the verification pass, the FBI page is not independent of the investigation, and the testifying officer conceded he could not identify the person or what he held. None of that disturbs the graded proposition.