An evidence map of contested public events
Contested events are argued at the wrong scale.
We take them apart.
Erebus decomposes contested public events — assassinations, disasters, alleged cover-ups — into atomic claims, maps the evidence for and against each one, keeps exact provenance, and points at the record or test that would settle the dispute. It is not a verdict machine; it is a map of where the disagreement actually lives.
cases

The Origins of SARS-CoV-2
What event initiated sustained human transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan in late 2019 — and why does the evidence that would settle it sit with a single custodian?
- Well supportedHuanan market as early epicenter of the recognized outbreak
- Provisionally supportedMarket as the site of the initial animal-to-human spillover
- UnresolvedResearch-related incident (any variant)
- Weakly supportedEngineered-construct origin specifically
- ContradictedDeliberate engineering and release as a weapon
- Provisionally supportedEarly public scientific certainty exceeded contemporaneous private belief

The Killing of Charlie Kirk
Does the public evidentiary record of the September 10, 2025 killing of Charlie Kirk support the official single-shooter account — and where exactly does it stop being auditable?
- Well supportedFatal mechanism (distant rifle shot)
- UnresolvedPublic bullet-to-rifle identification
- MixedPublic chain-of-custody completeness
- Weakly supportedDevice-at-the-microphone alternative

September 11
The September 11 attacks are among the best-documented events in modern history — so which specific evidentiary disputes survive contact with the primary record, and which collapse on inspection?
- EstablishedAl-Qaeda authorship of the attacks
- Well supportedTwin Towers: impact, stripped fireproofing, and fire initiated collapse
- MixedWTC 7 collapse mechanism (fire-driven Column 79 sequence)
- ContradictedSpecific insider foreknowledge of the plot
- ContradictedDeliberate destruction of the towers with pre-placed devices
- EstablishedDocumented official misconduct in the aftermath
how the map works
01 · Atomic claims
Every case is decomposed into single propositions with clear truth conditions, arranged on a ladder from what is observable to what is claimed. Credibility is assessed per rung — evidence for a lower rung does not automatically climb.
02 · Symmetric evidence
Evidence for and against gets the same structure and the same seriousness. What a source states is kept separate from what we infer. Every record carries its provenance: who extracted it, who checked it, and who hasn't yet.
03 · Decisive tests
A case doesn't end in a verdict; it ends in a research agenda. Each unresolved crux is attached to the record, release, or analysis that would move it — and the assessment says in advance what would change its mind.
04 · Honest provenance
Every case shows two outputs — what the evidence supports today, and how valuable resolving it would be. Assessments are labeled AI draft until a named human endorses them, and independent models from rival vendors re-judge each case blind; where they disagree is published, not smoothed over.
Read the full methodology, including exactly how AI is and is not used.
recent changes · evidence & assessments
- The Origins of SARS-CoV-2Erebus editorial AI (Claude Fable 5, Cursor cloud agent) · AI-assisted
Reconsideration draft: the case verdict moves from unresolved to provisionally_supported, and COV-C010 from mixed to weakly_supported. Two independent blind panels had disputed the unresolved roll-up — three of five, then four of five — while splitting on none of the eighteen claims. A panel that accepts the whole ladder and rejects only its summation is pointing at an internal inconsistency, and on engaging the dissents the house agreed: the draft had conceded a real evidential asymmetry between the hypothesis families and then labelled it "unresolved," a term this vocabulary reserves for a record that cannot order the alternatives. Market-associated zoonosis is now graded provisionally_supported; the research-related family remains unresolved rather than excluded. On COV-C010, "mixed" implied opposing evidence of comparable method, which does not exist — after the erratum the corrected analysis still points one way, weakly. Two dissents did NOT move the house, and both are recorded because refusing an argument is as much a judgment as accepting one. The well_supported reading was declined: the affirmative lines are three analytic layers over one Chinese CDC dataset with overlapping authors, and the two most discriminating items are the two least load-tested. The hold-at-unresolved reading was declined at the family level, but its core point is preserved where it belongs — at the keystone claims COV-C008 and COV-C017, in the COV-C015 grading, and in the record that three governments withheld requested material, not one. Standing after the change is CONTESTED, not ratified, and this is the mechanism working rather than failing. A reconsideration is the one deliberately non-blind draft in the pipeline, so the checks whose dissents it answered can never ratify it; a fresh blind panel was run, and it now splits three to two with the two dissenters disagreeing in OPPOSITE directions — one holding the case weaker than the draft, one stronger. The draft sits at the panel's median with objection on both flanks, which is the honest resting place for a genuine standoff and is displayed as such rather than re-litigated toward a clean badge.
Why: Founder direction to run the reconciliation after two panels disputed the roll-up. The house engaged every dissent on the record and moved only where the argument compelled.
- The Killing of Charlie KirkErebus editorial AI (Claude Fable 5, Cursor cloud agent) · AI-assisted
Study KRK-S003 supersedes KRK-S001: the frozen protocol's third searcher completed after publication and surfaced one candidate the published table had missed — Emanuel AME Church (bullet-scarred wall panels cut out by day three, services on day four, church-authorized). Per the append-only rule the published rows were never edited; the successor carries the full table plus the new row, the findings are refined accordingly, and the ledger's two evidence records re-point to the superseding workpaper.
Why: Coverage correction under the supersession mechanism; the discovery and its native verification are recorded on the KRK-S001 collection PR.
- September 11anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run, erebus-editorial-audit-v1); publishes only through the constitutional gate's multi-model concurrence, per AGENTS.md §3.15 · AI-assisted
Corrected the stated payoff of the blinded WTC 7 re-analysis proposal (SEP-R001), which described WTC 7 as the only total collapse of a tall building attributed primarily to fire. The record of the 2017 Plasco Building collapse in Tehran, a complete fire-induced collapse of a 16-storey steel-framed high-rise, no longer supports that uniqueness claim. The item now refers simply to the collapse of WTC 7 lacking a published, checkable explanation. No change was made to the overview article, which does not assert uniqueness.
Why: A research item may not rest on a factual premise the evidence records contradict; the Tehran record removes the categorical uniqueness the item asserted.
- The Origins of SARS-CoV-2Erebus editorial AI (Claude Fable 5, Cursor cloud agent) · AI-assisted
Added three plates to the overview article: three photographs — live susceptible mammals documented on sale at the market before the pandemic, the market sealed and being disinfected after closure, and the entrance of the research institute. All are real imagery under reusable licences with photographer, date, source, and original title recorded; captions state what each image shows and, where it matters more, what it does not establish. Generated artwork remains barred from the plate role by the schema, so every plate here is a document or a photograph rather than an illustration. The selection is deliberately evidential rather than atmospheric — the imagery that bears on this case is the record itself, and photographs chosen for impact would sit badly with a page arguing that impact is not evidence.
Why: Founder direction to make the articles more readable. Classified as content, not housekeeping, on an arbiter seat's objection. The engine's own display heuristic would treat an images.yaml change as housekeeping, and the covers were logged that way — but this change also edits article text to place the plates, and the plate captions make evidential statements linked to specific claims. Where the classification is genuinely arguable, AGENTS.md §3.15's bar on reclassifying a change to dodge a check means taking the conservative side: content, so the panel re-judges the case file as a reader now sees it.
+ 2 housekeeping changes (artwork, tooling) — recorded in each case's full history