Undermines· strongSEP-E022
The Commission's trace-out: 95 percent of the airline puts to one investor with no conceivable ties
- what the source states
- "Some unusual trading did in fact occur, but each such trade proved to have an innocuous explanation. ... A single U.S.-based institutional investor with no conceivable ties to al Qaeda purchased 95 percent of the UAL puts on September 6 as part of a trading strategy that also included buying 115,000 shares of American on September 10. Similarly, much of the seemingly suspicious trading in American on September 10 was traced to a specific U.S.-based options trading newsletter, faxed to its subscribers on Sunday, September 9, which recommended these trades. ... These investigators have found that the apparently suspicious consistently proved innocuous."
- what we infer
- Specific, plausible, and unverifiable from outside. The footnote names neither the investor nor the newsletter nor the underlying agency files, and its cited authorities are interviews and an internal memorandum that remain non-public — so the trace-outs cannot be audited. That is why SEP-C016 is graded weakly supported rather than contradicted: the explanation is probably right and nobody outside the government can check it.
- limitations
- The investigating bodies' own summary of their own unpublished work product.
- The footnote asserts that each unusual trade proved innocuous while publishing the reasoning for only two examples.