Undermines· moderateKRK-E057
Base rate: rapid scene alteration is documented in comparable cases, always with an undisputed authorizer
- what the source states
- "Every fast alteration in the table pairs speed with a named, undisputed authorizer": Boston's pre-planned city restoration began one minute after the FBI's formal handback; Sutherland Springs' sanctuary was patched and repainted by its owner within seven days; the Nickel Mines schoolhouse was demolished by its owners on day ten. Where a formal release is documented, alteration followed it; where no release record was found, the owner acted openly with no investigative objection anywhere on the record.
- what we infer
- Speed alone cannot carry a concealment inference: comparable scenes were altered as fast or faster than the UVU courtyard under owner authorization that no investigator disputed. The alteration-speed intuition behind the concealment reading is deflated by the measured base rate.
- limitations
- Eighteen comparable venues; venue-based comparability does not control for victim prominence or political salience.
- Release-before-alteration is directly documented in six rows and is a labeled inference (open owner action, no objection on record) in the fast rows — observation and inference are not pooled (see the study's limitations).