Supports· strongCOV-E010
Two lineages, two nucleotides, and the introduction-date estimates
- what the source states
- "Lineage A differs from lineage B by two nucleotide substitutions, C8782T and T28144C, which are also found in related coronaviruses from Rhinolophus bats." On timing: "we inferred the infection date of the lineage B primary case to be 18 November (95% HPD, 23 October to 8 December) and the infection date of the primary case of lineage A to be 25 November (95% HPD, 29 October to 14 December). The lineage B primary case predated that of lineage A in 64.6% of the posterior sample, by a median of 7 days." The corrected conclusion: "we inferred substantial support favoring separate introductions of lineages A and B (BF = 4.3 and BF = 4.2 by using the recCA and unconstrained rooting, respectively)."
- what we infer
- The Bayes factors quoted here are the corrected values. The originally published figures were 61.6 and 4.2 — a distinction that matters because the pre-correction numbers still circulate widely, including in material that cites this paper approvingly.
- limitations
- Model-based inference sensitive to rooting choices, molecular-clock assumptions, unsampled intermediates, and which early sequences are trusted.
- Companion paper to the market epicenter study with overlapping authors and inputs; their agreement is not independent corroboration.
- Several hundred early Chinese sequences remain unpublished.